Shaun Kenney | Politics and Religion in Virginia's Public Square


Monday, October 18, 2004 Cell Phones and Polls Could cell phone only users be skewing the polling data? Undoubtedly so. The question on many skeptics' minds is whether or not those who use only cell phones will have different voting patterns this year than those who use traditional land line telephones. In-Stat.MDR, a wireless market-research firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz., conducted a survey of wireless users in February of this year. Of the 970 people questioned, 14.4 percent were cell-phone-only users, the majority of whom were single Americans between the ages of 18 and 24, living in mostly urban areas. The survey also reported that the majority of wireless-only users were mobile-data users who subscribed to services such as Sprint or T-Mobile and used their phones to perform e-mail and Internet functions as well. Shawnta Wolcott, director of communications for Zogby International, which reaches voters by telephone as well as the Internet, conceded that the cell-phone-only crowd is affecting pollsters' ability to reach voters. This is one of those 1932 Gallup issues. For those of you unfamiliar with the story, Gallup conducted a poll in 1932 to determine who would win the election. The results came in overwhelmingly for Hoover. Alas, FDR carried the election. Why? Those who owned telephones at the time tended to be better off than those who did not. That demographic tends to vote Republican, and so naturally the results came back tipped towards Hoover. If you didn't own a phone, you weren't in Gallups polling universe. Now let's take the 18-30 demographic that uses cell phones as their only phone resource? Do you think they vote Republican or Democratic? Many political consultants agree, however, that since younger voters vote at a lower rate as it is, the wireless-only crowd should not significantly affect this year’s results. “There’s enough people out there that this is still a very small proportion (of voters),” said GOP pollster Jim McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates. McLaughlin pointed out that though this group only makes up about 5 percent of the electorate, pollsters should not be missing them entirely because a large number of young voters still do have land lines. Perhaps so, but the article concedes that in 10-15 years it could be a problem. If turnout is high this November, it could provide that 1-2% boost for one particular candidate or another (and in the Republican case, I get the feeling that it would be the other). posted by Shaun Kenney \| 10/18/2004 10:35:00 AM \| 0 comments 0 Comments: Post a Comment Home
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