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Monday, November 07, 2005My PredictionsHere it is: Kilgore by 3. The margin will not be large enough to say mandate, and I'm sure the Dems will point to various inefficiencies in their GOTV efforts. But under the radar, the GOP will turn out and take back the Governor's Mansion despite the rift between conservatives and moderates within the GOP. Bolling by 3. Bolling has run a strong campaign, continuing the trend he ran during the GOP primary race. His numbers would be much larger if Kilgore had attempted to motivate the conservative base, and those voting for Potts will almost certainly vote for their fellow liberal in Leslie Byrne. Still, many conservatives who will leave the ballot blank for governor will vote enthusiastically for Bolling. Close, but decisive. McDonnell by 5. The margin here would be wider if McDonnell received better up-ticket support on issues, but McDonnell's trifecta of Hampton Roads, conservative advocacy, and yes his pro-2nd Amendment stance despite the best attempts by Creigh Deeds to dent the armor simply will not work. McDonnell is a fine candidate, and will move on well beyond Attorney General. Looking forward to McDonnell's leadership these next four years. Craddock, Golden, Frederick, Black, and Wittman will all turn back their Democratic challengers. In the case of Wittman, Craddock, and Golden, that scores the defeat of three tax-and-spend liberals and doom for any potential tax hike, regardless of what happens with the governor's race tomorrow. Congratulations to VCAP, a 33% success rate taking on incumbents is incredible. Moderates and moderation for its own sake will be utterly destroyed as a third way in Virginia. No more walking the fence. Virginia voters are sending a clear message with the downticket races that so-called "moderates" simply don't have any room to maneuver. Denied a feasible majority within the House of Delegates, conservatives will be much better prepared to turn back any tax hike in 2006. Moreover, in the event of a Kilgore victory, the governor's veto will be the omnipresent hammer of God to smite any tax talk. In short, with Potts' embarassing showing and the lack of a House majority with Dems, the moderates are in a tough spot. If Kilgore wins, it will be solely because conservatives trust him to stick to his guns a la John Roberts nomination. If not, it will be because Kilgore couldn't sell conservatives on his credentials as a warrior on pro-life and anti-tax values. In the end, tomorrow has all the makings of a good night for GOP conservatives. Even under the remote chances of losing the governor's race, the GOP in Virginia has undertaken a much more conservative turn for the better. I think we're about to find out how good the vaunted RNC GOTV effort really is, and it is very good folks. As for the Dems, everything hangs on a Kaine victory. Need I say more?
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JEFFERSONIAD POLL: Whom do you support for Virginia Attorney General?1) John Brownlee2) Ken Cuccinelli AboutShaunKenney.com is one of Virginia's oldest political blogs, focusing on the role of religion and politics in public life. Shaun Kenney, 30, lives in Fluvanna County, Virginia.ContactThe Jeffersoniad
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