Winners and losers
I received a phone call at 7:00am from the McDonnell campaign to head down to the registrar's office to check on the provisional ballots and the vote certification. No worries there, but I am gratified to see Bolling and McDonnell emerge with the margins of victory, not to mention slightly amused to see so many write-ins (592) for delegate in the 54th. True to my word, I voted for Bobby, but I'm thankful for the sentiment (votes for Mickey Mouse aside).
Some brief thoughts the day after:
WINNERS
* Tim Kaine. No matter how you slice it, Tim Kaine ran a solid campaign and deserves the win. I look forward to see how our Catholic governor's faith will square with his policy.
* Conservatives. Eh? Might sound off the wall, but in a week or so we're going to realize that conservatives have Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell to energize the base and bring a clear conservative direction to Virginia.
* John Chichester. With Democratic gains in the House and a Kaine victory, could he be any happier?
* Democratic Party of Virginia. A Kaine loss followed by GOP pickups in the House would have spelled disaster for the DPVA. Instead, they now have a lease on life. Whether they will use the brief respite to establish themselves as a minority party rather than a displaced majority party remains to be seen.
LOSERS
* Moderates. The world is either black or white, liberal or conservative, and the voters demand nothing less than a sharp and distinct choice in their candidates. If anything has been demonstrated, it is that conservatives are willing to shed their moderates in favor of the real thing. Jerry Kilgore stood for everything, and conservatives punished him accordingly.
* RPV. Expect the scapegoating to begin shortly.
* Phone banking. People hate it. There's gotta be a better way of turning out the troops.
* The vaunted GOTV program. Did it bring Kilgore closer? Perhaps. But nothing beats the power of solid grassroots campaigning, and we simply didn't have that this time.
* The Democratic Bench. It just keeps getting worse and worse for the Dems. Apart from Warner, who on earth can they run for statewide office now? Chap Petersen perhaps? "Left Field" Payne?
* The Sean Connaughton Crowd. Bolling won. Ha ha!
I actually like Connaughton personally, but his die-hard supporters poison the well. They might want to consider ratcheting down the rhetoric a notch or twelve. And BTW, unless Connaughton is trying to get a head-start on the 2009 Lt. Governor race, please for the love of God and all things holy TEAR DOWN YOUR CONNAUGHTON SIGNS IN STAFFORD AND SPOTSYLVANIA!!! I had more of those 4x8s in the back of my truck longer than I care to think about. *shudder*
DRAWS
* VCAP Lost all six, which is disappointing if only for the sake that I was really pulling for my fellow partners-in-crime. However, considering a full third of the incumbents challenged did indeed lose, VCAP fulfilled it's mission to some extent. Given the 2006 session, how many of the now-15 moderate Republicans who broke ranks are going to relish the idea of a stiff, well-financed primary challenge (especially in a primary that might very well be closed to non-Republicans)? Not many I'd wager. VCAP makes tax hikes tough to go by.
* President Bush. What does Virginia have to do with the President? Nothing. Show me the Democrat who could beat Bush - even with today's numbers - and if you can say the name without every conservative in the room bursting into uncontrollable laughter, you win.
* Senator Allen. 2006 becomes interesting now, but "Jeffersonian Conservativism"® might just be the thing to rally the Virginia GOP.
That's all! And for bragging rights, I offer you my August analysis of Virginia politics at the time.
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Shaun Kenney 
6 Comments:
I would find it rather difficult to believe that moderates voted for Kaine based on merit, then flipped to vote for Bolling in numbers.
It's easier to believe that conservatives simply didn't vote for Kilgore and voted for Bolling (hence the reason why Bolling received more votes) than to believe the opposite.
Been wrong before though...
I disagree that Bolling was "closer to the center" than McDonnell. Both candidates are very conservative, the only difference being the NRA endorsement. And as we see, it really didn't affect the results in a big way -- a point or two maybe?
In raw terms, VCAP was 1 for 3.
Add to the stack that VCAP endorsed both Bolling and McDonnell during their hotly contested primaries, and I think their effectiveness is pretty well demonstrated.
McDonnell did well in Richmond and also Tidewater. Baril would have not done as well in Tidwater.
Baril would have lost he had run here.
By the way, who else saw him in Richmond Tuesday night? He is definitely running again. I sure hope we run someone good, b/c i dont wanna vote for him.
Connaughton is a good conservative though, polished much like Bob McDonnell. Raising taxes in PW County doesn't sit well with me, but he has four years to do something about that.
As for Baril, I think he'd make a fine candidate (future AG?). I supported McDonnell during the primary, but that was a personal choice between a guy I knew vs. a guy I didn't know. Now that McDonnell is AG, I'll tell you what... he has a great career in politics ahead of him. A good conservative who can fire up the base, no question.
As for NOVA, keep in mind that while NOVA is growing, most of Virginia simply doesn't stem from the same demographic. Northern Virginia candidates are fine and dandy, but it's not the end-all-be-all. If it were, Byrne would be Lt. Governor right now, and Connaughton would have beaten Bolling.
Neither happened.
Perhaps I should have put NOVA in the draw column... ;)
I want to be sure I have this right-You say VCAP challenged six incumbents, and two of them lost?
Who were the six incumbents? Also, of the two who lost how many were replaced by VCAP-backed candidates?
Thanks!
The other four were Scott, Orrock, May, and Parrish.
Of course, none of the VCAP candidates replaced the incumbents (which is where I assume your line of questioning leads). However, consider that VCAP (1) doesn't consider this a loss, as it's easier to beat Democrats than incumbent Republicans, (2) only 5% of all incumbent challengers actually pull it off, and (3) Bolling and McDonnell both won their primaries against well-funded candidates and went on to win in the general elections.
I'm not saying VCAP really won; I'm sure they would have preferred to win both the Craddock and Golden primaries. But by no measure did they lose or become uneffective. In fact, they're the big stick when conservatives speak softly against tax hikes.
That's my (extended) take on it anyhow.
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