Friday, June 02, 2006

Think the Virginia Democratic Primary is Bad?

Check out California.

Now add this to Jim Riley's addition that Allen has a 10-1 cash advantage over both his Democratic primary opponents, and Senator Allen isn't so bad off.

What's more revealing here is that the Miller campaign seems to be pacing themselves on outspending Webb 2-1. What's makes it even better for Miller is that Webb's final shot is nothing less than a comic book reminiscent of G.I. Joe.

Should have given Miller a blanket for his head, then picture him with Cobra Commander's high-pitched squeal. REEETREEEAAAT!!!

Comics were great when I was 10. Not so great when you're in politics. Frankly, the comic is juvenile, and like most comics can be easily laughed off. Too many Webbsters in the fishbowl, I think.

That's what having volunteers run your campaign does to you. I wouldn't be surprised if Miller himself was handing these ridiculous comics out on election day...

UPDATE: Jim is updating that the flyer is/was a joke, but we already knew that much, right? In other news, the WaPo endorsed Harris Miller, with reasons that Miller is "better briefed, better focused, and more thoughtful." What they don't mention is that he's financially better prepared to challenge Allen.

The first question now becomes not whether Webb will lose, but by how much, and will it give Miller momentum into Labor Day. The next question is whether or not the Webbsters will (a) support Miller despite their oaths not to do so, and (b) recognize their agitation and vitriol probably cost their man the election.

Finally, we have to ask a technical question.

Much like Howard Dean, the James Webb campaign utilized the same strategies in building momentum: blogs, volunteers, liberal emphaisis, in-your-face politicking. It didn't work for Dean in 2004. At the moment, it's not working for Webb in 2006. You have to ask yourself (if you're a political junkie) whether the Dean/Webb model works?

9 Comments:

At 11:11 AM, Blogger nova_middle_man said...
I still think Webb will win (barely) but the sad truth is money is propablly still the number one factor in determining who will win a primary.

 

At 11:13 AM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...
General elections too...

 

At 12:33 AM, Blogger Dvt guy said...
It's looking like about 60-65% for Webb. I'm not worried.

 

At 12:39 AM, Blogger Dvt guy said...
"Much like Howard Dean, the James Webb campaign utilized the same strategies in building momentum: blogs, volunteers, liberal emphaisis, in-your-face politicking. It didn't work for Dean in 2004. At the moment, it's not working for Webb in 2006"

What evidence do you have that "it" is not working?

This primary is over, and it's been over since the day that Webb announced...it's looking like a blow out...

 

At 10:34 AM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...
Webb at 60-65%, eh?

If I had poll numbers like that, I'd be taking them to the press! Where on earth did you get those numbers from, VC???

 

At 8:14 PM, Blogger Charles said...
He got them from the echo chamber known as the blogosphere, where you can find hundreds, even thousands of people who think and feel just like you do, and talk to each other until you are convinced the whole world agrees with you, except of course for your opponent, who is out of step, out of touch, and will of course lose by large amounts because, after all, everyobody agrees with you -- at least everybody you talk to does.

 

At 10:41 PM, Blogger Karen Duncan said...
First of all, I'd hardly call Webb a liberal. Second, volunteers are actually a good thing. One of the reasons Republicans have been so successful is because of their party building efforts, which include encouraging volunteers rather than just overpaid professional consultants and slick ads.

Grassroots effort can be the heart and soul of a campaign and Webb has the grassroots effort going for him.

Miller has been relying on a slick, expensive professional campaign, and one that has been over the top negative.

It's one thing for an independent blogger to post something in a white heat anger and hit the send button all too soon. We've all - including conservative Republican bloggers - done that. It's quite another for a campaign to have a professionally laid out, professionally mailed brochure that is nothing more than a dishonest and negative attack. And that's what Miller's campaign has done and been about.

 

At 5:34 PM, Blogger F.T. Rea said...
It seems some of today's pushy campaigners think that if you repeat what you wish was true enough times, it will make it so. Perhaps they think that if they can establish the illusion of momentum it will break a stuck-in-the-mud campaign's inertia. Maybe even convince their opponent to give up and withdraw.

Well, I'm not saying it could never happen. But I will say no serious player or serious money would ever rely on such silliness, unless they had no choice.

 

At 8:47 AM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...
AIAW,

It's quite another for a campaign to have a professionally laid out, professionally mailed brochure that is nothing more than a dishonest and negative attack. And that's what Miller's campaign has done and been about.

I'll grant you that much, but Goldman is right -- the blogs have given Miller cover to publish those kinds of attacks.

I've spoken with plenty of others about Ben's comments regarding Miller's faith, and they saw it in the same light as I. Stuff like that hurts Webb, especially when it's not repudiated.

That being said, you are 100% correct on the fluidity of blogs. It will be interesting to see whether the "netroots" hurt or help Webb. Contrary to what others have been saying, I argue that people *do* read blogs, especially the activists, pundits, volunteers, etc. who want to know what is going on.

Good comment, AIAW. Ditto for F.T. Rea.

 

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