Winners and Losers
Since we seem to be mulling over who won and lost last Tuesday, I thought I'd chime in with my own analysis:
WINNERS:
* White Collar Progressives: Progressives showed the Democratic Party of Virginia who was dominant, and sent the traditional liberals packing.
* Republican Blogs: On the flip side of the coin, the Miller-Webb race turned into a win-win situation.
* Harris Miller: For Governor? Wait and see... but after suffering some of the more brutal attacks from Webb, in the end I get the feeling he earned the respect of many in the Virginia electorate, especially after his classy concession speech.
* George Allen: I still contend that we got the weaker candidate on Tuesday, one who will not motivate the African-American base, one who alienated Jewish-Americans, and one who has a terrible campaign staff. Miller would have been much more difficult to beat. A Webb campaign holding hands with Senator John Kerry is gold for Republicans -- especially when you consider that Allen is the most popular Republican in the Commonwealth.
DRAW:
* Jim Webb: Sometimes people judge you on the manner of which you win your campaign, and what might work for within a Democratic primary (cartoons, standing next to John Kerry) will destroy you among independent and Republican voters. Welcome to the big leagues, Jim.
* Democratic Blogs: Sure you helped Webb win, but at what cost to your own reputations (and do you care)?
* DPVA: Progressives vs. liberals, and the establishment got whacked. Tantamount to a coup d'etat.
LOSERS:
* Liberals: You got whacked folks, and you're losing your party to a movement I'm not sure anyone wants to see come to power. Fight back for Christ's sake!!!
* Civility and Decorum in the Democratic Party: That entire primary was atrocious, and those who participated in the smear attacks should be absolutely ashamed of themselves. Negative campaigning is one thing, but nasty campaigning has no place in Virginia (or so I thought).
* Civility and Decorum in the GOP: Senator George Allen isn't going to let Jim Webb get away with the nonsense his poor campaign staff forced him to accept during the primary. And be forewarned: Republicans are at a tipping point. If you think the Howard Dean style candidacy is bad, angry Republicans on the ground are getting sick and tired of being pushed around -- and I don't like it one bit. Frankly, the behavior of radical Democrats is changing the behavior of conservatives in a big way. The reason why Ann Coulter is popular is because she fights back. How much longer before conservatives (the traditionally calm and reasoned types) decide to react? I worry...
* Jim Webb's Reputation: Secretary Webb entered this race with a chance - distant though possible - of building his coaltion. His campaign staff and his volunteers have utterly destroyed that reputation. Now George Allen has a chance to unite not just the moderate and conservative factions of the GOP under his "Jeffersonian conservativism", he also has a clear chance of bringing those Webb alienated into a Republican Party sensitive to African-Americans, Hispanics, and yes Jewish voters. Through September, Allen has an excellent chance to build that coalition, and Webb must rebuild his reputation. Derailing that effort will only hurt Webb further, especially if his volunteers use the same tactics the primary engendered them to use.
* Ben Tribbett: This has to be said -- one year ago when he was all analysis, he was top of the heap. Since he drifted into commentary, it's been all downhill from there. If you were at Sorenson, he had to be the most universally disliked character in Virginia (to the point I was actually defending him at times during our panel conversation). NLS has imploded from analysis to tabloid, beyond repair at this point, and it's sad to see. To be mentioned in the same breath as BVBL and "when will he sued" is not a good sign...
That's my take on it folks. Webb won, civility lost, and Republicans are getting angry in a way I have never seen.
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David 
7 Comments:
The more liberal the precinct, the more likely Webb won it. Looks like Liberals got their man.
As for the rest of your points -
....
traditional liberals? Where were they?
Harris Miller was an extraordinarily wealthy tech guy. He was the archetype of the Beyer-Warner Democrat.
The VA Democratic Party hasn't been the party of workingmen/women for almost 20 years. Neither of these guys will change that.
The Howard Dean-style progressives are ascendent, no question there.
I'm not sure if my panel will be podcasted, though it would have been a good idea (though difficult to implement given the way the questions were going).
Of course, I know the old-style liberals and the progressives are fighting over who are the "true liberals", and that's none of my business to decide.
I only worry about (a) who's going to win the discussion and (b) what it's going to do to my party -- or how we react to a Dean-style progressive movement.
Our crackpots are more dangerous than your crackpots... how's that for a fair statement? :)
Shaun, that quote is gold, baby, gold! I'm guessing you've moved into the wise middle with the rest of us thinkers?
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