Tuesday, October 09, 2007

A Second Tech Bubble?

So says the Wall Street Journal:
The goofy-names index, for example, is back near its previous high. Consider Orgoo Inc., which helps people organize all their Web communications. Or Zipidee Inc., a purveyor of "digital goods" such as cellphone ring tones. "Are these names of dogs or are they names of companies?" asks Kate Mitchell, a venture capitalist in Foster City, Calif.

The rate of odd-looking start-ups, too, is on the rise. One called Startup Schwag exists solely to deliver a monthly package of T-shirts and other goodies bearing logos of other tech start-ups. Rapper MC Hammer, known for 1990s hits like "U Can't Touch This" and a 1996 bankruptcy filing, is chief strategy officer of an online-video start-up called DanceJam. PlaySpan Inc., a Web-gaming outfit that raised $6.5 million, boasted on its Web site that it had been founded by a fifth-grader.

Then there's this familiar froth indicator: Some office landlords in Silicon Valley are again accepting stock in still-private start-ups in lieu of rent.

"It is absolutely déjà vu," says David Chao, a venture capitalist in Menlo Park, Calif., who reports seeing lots of bad business ideas, from ever-younger entrepreneurs. "There's just as much junk now as there was in 1999," he says.
I would tend to agree... as there are plenty of ideas out there, and plenty of beta startups, but not much momentum.

OTOH, look at the risk/benefit analysis. It's not like Google is an ordinary name either, and the ROI on something like that has turned into a Microsoft competitor -- a feat unimaginable during the 1990s when Netscape was only expected to make a dent into the web browser market.

And forget the operating system (where MS is still unrivaled)... when it comes to games, Microsoft will dominate.

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