Why the Democratic majority cannot dominate
Waldo Jaquith gets the jump, and he cites different reasons than I might, but on the whole his point is not just worthwhile, but worth reading.
Not only will the Democratic resurgency in Virginia be brief, it will be brutal, nasty, and mercifully short.
What enabled Democrats to take the Virginia Senate? Demographic shifts in NOVA are a fraction of the reason, but point more readily towards a failure to lead on the part of Republicans -- both nationally and statewide.
Since the gubernatorial bid of Jerry Kilgore in 2005, conservatives have found sitting on their hands and staying at home as a method of passive protest, a method which erodes the confidence of elected officials in "the grassroots" as something worth investing in.
Multiply this times three losses (Kilgore, Allen, and the Virginia Senate), and you get the 2007 election results.
Add to the mix a President George Bush who's approval ratings amongst conservatives are low, and you get the picture. Between the Harriet Miers SCOTUS nomination, and the 2007 amnesty bill for illegal aliens, and you get the fuller picture... Republicans aren't winning, because conservatives aren't supporting the leadership (or more accurately, leadership isn't acting on the wishes of the grassroot base, and the "silent majority" is punishing the GOP accordingly).
Waldo gets it right with the dominance of the NOVA/ROVA split in the Democratic Party. Much like conservatives and moderates have been eating away at the GOP majority for nearly eight years in Virginia, the same is happening internally to the Virginia Democrats -- only the problem is much more acute for the loyal opposition.
Here's where the picture gets more problematic for the Virginia Democrats: This is not a state that has swallowed the blue pill. The marriage amendment in 2006 didn't just pass, it sailed. Despite Kaine's win in 2005, both Lt. Governor Bolling and AG McDonnell won their seats -- Bolling doing so decisively. Out of the 140 seats up for grabs in 2007, it was Republicans -- not Democrats -- that won the plurality of the total votes cast.
It gets worse for "progressives" in Virginia. Look towards Hampton Roads, and in the races Democrats won, they did so by running to the right. Jim Webb, no slouch on the 2nd Amendment, is anathema to many of the gun-grabbing leftists in Northern Virginia. Mark Warner runs as a centrist (rather than as a liberal or a progressive) and has a position on Iraq that is decidedly to the right of many of his counterparts. Governor Tim Kaine, though a partisan, joined hands with Republican Speaker Bill Howell on the transportation bill and muscled in the abuser fees...
In short, 1 in 7 votes cast in the Commonwealth may be in Fairfax County, but 6 out of 7 are cast elsewhere... and regionalism (and dare I say nativism) still prevails very strongly against first generation Virginians.
Here's the clincher:
As wealthy, urban districts and their representatives gain influence, they’ll come to play a disproportionate role in the selection and election of our statewide candidates. We’ll witness this very battle take place between now and 2009, when Sen. Creigh Deeds and Del. Brian Moran face off for the Democratic nomination for governor. I believe that Sen. Deeds is eminently more electable, by virtue of his being much closer to the center than Del. Moran. But it’s that very trait that may prevent him from being nominated, if the center of Democratic power in Virginia lies as far north as I suspect that it does.
Democrats have learned to fake centrism since the dark days of 2001. Many can talk (uncomfortably) about the role of faith in politics, protecting the right to own firearms, the value of fiscal restraint and balanced budget, etc. But, as we cement our majority in the legislature, I think a lot of Democrats will drop that talk just as fast as Democratic legislators will drop talk of redistricting reform. How long did Republicans in the General Assembly fight for proportional representation on committee seats? How long did it take Republicans to ditch that commitment as we began to lose seats in the House of Delegates and Senate? Not long... though with the loss of the Senate, some have recently rediscovered their "principles".
Take another step back. Virginia Democrats run as "centrists", while the conservatives within the Virginia Republicans continue to show strength, to the point of running candidates in primaries against moderate Republicans. This is a luxury the GOP can afford, while regionalism (and the values regionalism connotes) is a problem no primary can resolve.
In short, while the battles within the Virginia Republicans are ideological, the battles within the Virginia Democrats are regional, perhaps to the point of being beyond resolution. Given the best climate they possibly could have had in 2007, Democrats barely took the Virginia Senate and still could not take the House of Delegates. Now they have to govern?
Given a slightly better national climate (and perhaps an agenda worth fighting for), Virginia Republicans will take back Virginia Senate -- perhaps in spite of redistricting. Statewide seats will continue to drop into the laps of Republicans. Referenda friendly to the conservative mind will continue to gain the approbation of Virginia's voting class.
I'm looking forward to 2009. Provided we don't screw it up.
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Waldo Jaquith 
2 Comments:
It's precisely the problem Virginia Republicans have right now, what with the inevitable nomination of Jim Gilmore -- the party has an enormously difficult time nominating candidates for statewide office, because the candidates who will get through a primary are not the candidates who can win.
Scenario: the first time a transportation bill comes up, and one bill has an I-81 corridor fix, and the other one is rail to Tysons, which one do rural Democrats vote for? Regionalism is much more harmful to party unity than ideological splits, IMO.
I think the *only* refutation to your example of GOP problems is Bill Bolling. Ran as a conservative in a primary, won handily. Of course, this hypothesis gets tested fully in 2009... we'll see.
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