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Saturday, January 05, 2008Winners and Losers of the Iowa CaucusAfter the smoke has cleared... here's the breakdown: WINNERS: Fred Thompson in 3rd may not be such a big deal... but considering the man jumped in late, fended off several heavily funded campaigns, and still did well in Iowa -- that says something. Thompson doesn't even have to do well in New Hampshire at this point, but he will have to perform well in Michigan and South Carolina to show strong for February 5th. Mike Huckabee won huge in Iowa, though it will more than likely be the last state he wins. McCain or Romney winning in New Hampshire will be the story leading into South Carolina, and with Thompson eroding Huckabee's base... well, South Carolina isn't going to be pretty. Ron Paul at 10%? Given the polls were showing him at somewhere closer to 4% in Iowa, a double-digit showing in New Hampshire now poses some serious questions to his inner circle. Blow the $20 million on a nomination you won't win, or build that third party? John Edwards in 2nd place was huge, for two reasons. First, though Obama won, he was close to his native state of Illinois and was expected to do well if not win. Secondly, Edwards didn't just do well -- he bumped off Hillary Clinton. Edwards is no longer a second tier candidate to be mildly considered... as Obama and Hillary continue to beat one another to pieces, this trial lawyer from North Carolina could very well move right up the middle and capture several key states going into February. John McCain is going to do extremely well, mostly because Republicans have a tendency to go with the old war horse in times of indecision (note Bob Dole in '96). Call it the Eisenhower Principle... when in doubt, find the oldest military veteran in the field and run THAT GUY! LOSERS: Mitt Romney is in deep, deep trouble. In my opinion, he absolutely needs a win in between Iowa (which he should have won) and Michigan. Anything less and he's just riding coattails and names. Hillary Rodham Clinton... this campaign is finished. Aggregate polls show Obama with either leads or in the margin of error (with the exception of one odd pollster consistently showing HRC with double-digits or better in New Hampshire). If HRC had come in second, then she would have had a bit of momentum, but John Edwards' second place finish has all but destroyed this campaign. She bows out after February 5th after struggling elsewhere. Rudy Giuliani, not because he did anything wrong at this point, but (a) he's all but conceded New Hampshire, (b) did not play in Iowa, (c) will not play in South Carolina, and (d) is putting his campaign life on beating all comers in Florida. Lose Florida, and his national popularity will not be enough to win Feburary 5th. Moreover, he is allowing for alternates such as Mike Huckabee to rise to the fore. America, because all this self-important navel gazing is a bunch of crap...
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JEFFERSONIAD POLL: Whom do you support for Virginia Attorney General?1) John Brownlee2) Ken Cuccinelli AboutShaunKenney.com is one of Virginia's oldest political blogs, focusing on the role of religion and politics in public life. Shaun Kenney, 30, lives in Fluvanna County, Virginia.ContactThe Jeffersoniad
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