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Sunday, April 13, 2008WaPo: Gilmore's Aides Confident He's AheadThis has been the topic of many conversations over the last week. Camp Gilmore says it's over, the votes are there, and are going out of their way to prove it. There's no panic at the head office, and while the "it's in the bag" talk has dissolved, no one has quite pushed the panic button yet. Meanwhile, the mood at Camp Marshall is optimistic, but not the sugary optimism one expects from a race that knows it's going to get beat. In fact, I would say the opposite -- Marshall's staff doesn't just believe it can win... they are expecting a win and don't really go out of their way to prove it. My honest view from 30,000 feet up? Take my old stomping grounds in the Fredericksburg area for instance. Spotsylvania? 3:1 Marshall. Stafford? Majority Marshall. Fredericksburg City? Majority Marshall. Here's the kicker: But based on early returns from the county meetings, Gilmore strategist M. Boyd Marcus said "there really isn't any doubt" that Gilmore will be the nominee because he is winning big in many rural counties as well as suburban Richmond and Hampton Roads.Is Boyd right? I've cautioned that this might be the case, though I can confirm that in humble Fluvanna, Bob Marshall will do well (provided everyone shows up). Now I don't have the familiarity in places like Fairfax, Prince William, and Chesterfield that others might have. So this very well could be a blowout in the rural parts of the state while social conservatives and Northern Virginia get swamped out. On the other hand... if Gilmore is conceding NOVA, and the social conservatives are turning out in places with contested unit chairman seats, the quiet confidence of the Marshall coalition between NOVA/SoCos/anti-HB 3202 crusaders/Davis supporters just might have more weight than folks care to realize just yet. The catch? "They really don't have anyone on their side that has really done this before," Marcus said of Marshall's campaign. "They never really understood what was happening around them. You can't build support on a statewide basis in a month or two."This is true. Then again, in the 1st District convention now-Congressman Rob Wittman didn't have anyone who did this before either. Staff only gets you halfway there... Surely it's all uphill for Marshall. But history (remember Mike Farris?) often vindicates the most socially conservative candidate. After all, isn't that why Gilmore wanted a convention in the first place against Davis?
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JEFFERSONIAD POLL: Whom do you support for Virginia Attorney General?1) John Brownlee2) Ken Cuccinelli AboutShaunKenney.com is one of Virginia's oldest political blogs, focusing on the role of religion and politics in public life. Shaun Kenney, 30, lives in Fluvanna County, Virginia.ContactThe Jeffersoniad
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